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National Housing Market News

Pinellas Real Estate ReportThese are heady days for American home sellers, with a recent report showing that housing prices in March recorded their largest annual increase in nearly three years.

But the gains are inflicting more financial pain on home buyers, though the price run-up has fallen well short of the annual double-digit increases during the mid-2000s housing bubble.

  • Home prices across the USA were up 5.8 percent annually in March, up from 5.7 percent the prior month, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index. Driving the increase were a longstanding shortage of both new and existing homes combined with steady job and income growth that’s prompting more Americans to buy houses for the first time or trade up.
  • The pace of price gains has accelerated in 2017 after year-over-year increases held fairly steady at a healthy 5 percent or so from 2014 to 2016.

“Home buyer demand is sky high, inventory levels are near rock bottom and home prices keep rising,” says Svenda Gudell, chief economist of real estate research firm Zillow.

S&P Case-Shiller’s 10- and 20-city indices, which track the largest metro areas, increased 5.2 percent and 5.9 percent from a year ago, respectively, unchanged from February.

On a monthly basis, the national index rose 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted while the 10- and 20-city indices each increased 0.9 percent. Seventeen of the 20 cities reported monthly increases after seasonal adjustment.

Seattle again led the nation with a 12.3 percent year-over-year gain in home prices, followed by Portland at 9.2 percent and Dallas at 8.6 percent. Half the areas in the 20-city index rose by more than 6 percent. New York posted the smallest gain at 4.1 percent, which was still double the rate of inflation.

  • Nationally, there’s a 4.2-month inventory of existing homes for sale, down from 4.6 months a year ago and a normal level of about six months, according to the National Association of Realtors.

“People are staying in their homes longer rather than selling and trading up,” says David Blitzer, managing director of S&P Dow Jones’ index committee. “If mortgage rates, currently near 4 percent, rise further, this could further deter more people from selling and keep pressure on inventories and prices.”

He adds “there’s no way to tell” when rising prices and mortgage rates will cool off the market.

Gudell says price increases should moderate as builders add more supply.

The national index is now 1.3 percent above its 2006 peak while the 10-city and 20-city indices are still 7.6 percent and 5.4 percent below their 2006 highs, respectively.

Florida Realtors May 31, 2017

Posted in: Clearwater Beach Real Estate, Florida Real Estate News Tagged: Clearwater Beach Buyers, Clearwater Beach Real Estate Market Report, Clearwater Beach Waterfront Lifestyles

Main Street holds up as Wall Street struggles

main street usaWall Street is hurting, and Main Street doesn’t care. It’s got burgers and cars to buy.

Big losses in stock markets around the world this year have the wingtip-set fretting, but regular consumers across the United States are confident enough to open their wallets and spend more.

It’s an about-face from the early years of the economic recovery, which began in 2009, when stocks and big banks were soaring but many on Main Street felt like they were getting left behind.

“It’s almost like a stock market is a different animal,” says Earl Stewart, who owns a Toyota dealership in North Palm Beach, Florida, far from the roiling markets in New York, Frankfurt and Shanghai. “We’re not seeing any of the negativity.”

The stock market’s malaise hasn’t affected his customers, at least not yet. Sales for the past year have been the best since 2007, and he had record profits in 2015.

The divergence underway between Main Street and Wall Street highlights the difference between the U.S. stock market and the economy. The stock market’s worries are centered on things like the strength of foreign economies, such as how much China’s sharp slowdown will hurt exporters and businesses in other countries. Low oil prices are crushing the shares of big energy companies and the big banks that lend to them – but leaving consumers with more money to spend after they fill up their car with cheap gasoline.

These forces have dragged the Standard & Poor’s 500 index down 12.5 percent from its peak in May. Foreign stocks have lost double that. Hedge funds, which cater to the wealthiest and biggest investors, are also struggling. They lost money in January and got off to their worst start of a year since 2008, according to Hedge Fund Research.

Economists say the split trends between Main Street and Wall Street can continue, but only up to a point. If profits fall sharply enough, for example, it could push CEOs to once again cut swaths of jobs in order to shore up their earnings. If stock prices fall deep enough, the panic in the headlines could traumatize consumers whether or not they have a 401(k), and spending could slow.

For now, though, Main Street continues to trend upward. Only 13 percent of the U.S. economy depends on exports, and the rest of it – which is mostly consumer spending – is still growing, albeit slowly.

“Down here, as a small business owner, you don’t feel connected to Wall Street at all,” says Jon Sears, a co-owner of four bars and restaurants in Columbia, South Carolina. “When I talk to people in Columbia, I can’t think of a conversation I’ve had about the stock market in the past two or three weeks.”

His business depends instead on the nearby University of South Carolina. Revenue growth at his locations has held up this year, at his cheapest bar and his more upscale restaurant that serves local, organic foods.

Retailers around the country are seeing something similar. Shoppers bought more autos, clothes and other items last month, even though the S&P 500 in that span had its worst week in more than four years. U.S. retail sales rose 0.2 percent during the month, beating analyst expectations.

Consumer sentiment did show a dip in early February. But confidence still remains near its average for last year and well above where it was for every other year of the recent bull market.

Among the reasons that Main Street is feeling relatively confident while Wall Street stumbles:

The job market is getting better


Employers continue to add jobs, particularly in the retail and health care industries, and the unemployment rate is at an eight-year low. Job growth did slow last month, but economists say that just balances out the big surge in hiring at the end of last year, and they’re still forecasting more gains.

Even more importantly, wages are trending higher. That means workers are feeling more secure in their jobs and in their finances. Just over 3 million workers quit their jobs in December, the highest number in nearly a decade. That’s an optimistic sign because people generally quit when they have a higher-paying job offer in hand.

Bills are getting a bit easier to pay


The plunging prices of gasoline, natural gas, heating oil and other commodities are getting lots of attention, but prices are low across the economy. Prices for meat, poultry, fish and eggs also fell in December from a year earlier. So did prices for clothes and airfares.

There is a fear that the economy may get too much of a good thing. If prices fall too sharply, it could lead to a vicious cycle in which customers wait longer to make purchases, which forces businesses to cut jobs.

Home values are rising

“More people care still care about the value of their homes than the value of their stocks,” says Diane Swonk, an independent economist. Find out what your home is worth.

That’s because for many Americans, their home is their biggest if not only investment. And that investment is doing well, regardless of the stock market’s struggles. Home prices nationwide are nearly back to peak levels from before the Great Recession, and they’re already at a record in San Francisco and several other cities.

It may just be Main Street’s time in the sun, says Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management. He says economic recoveries have long been split into two phases.

“The first half of an economic cycle is when markets tend to best, and that’s when Wall Street gains on Main Street,” Doll says. “The second half is when labor gets an increasing share of GDP, and that’s just starting.”

Florida Realtors® February 2016

Posted in: Clearwater Beach Buyers, Clearwater Beach Real Estate, Florida Real Estate News Tagged: Economic Overview, Homes on Clearwater Beach

Florida Housing Market Report December 2015

florida housing - florida home valuesThe year of 2015 saw a true rebound in Florida Housing Values

  • Statewide, single-family sales totaled 23,056 last month, up 2.9 percent over the year.
  • Condo sales fell 1.2 percent to 9,357, according to the Florida Realtors trade group.
  • Homes sold for a median of $206,500, which was 11.6 percent more than last year.
  • Condos traded for $156,500, up 5.0 percent.

“Florida’s real estate markets remained quite healthy in December,” said Brad O’Connor, chief economist at Florida Realtors. “Closed sales remain strong, and prices continue to rise.

“Inventory levels of single-family homes dropped to an annual low for 2015 at the end of December, to just under 100,000 active listings,” he added.

Nationwide
Nationwide, total home sales in 2015 were the most in nine years, as closings rebounded in December after new regulations had delayed the completion of purchases in November.

The National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes climbed 14.7 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million. Sales had previously plummeted as the industry adapted to new mortgage disclosure rules — a temporary downturn before delayed sales were finalized in December.

“This is a great way to cap off 2015,” said Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Last month’s rebound concluded a year that produced the highest annual sales total since 2006. Steady job growth and low mortgages drew more buyers into the market, causing both sales and prices to climb.

Americans bought roughly 5.26 million homes in 2015, a 6.5 percent increase over 2014. The median sales price rose 6.8 percent to $222,400.

The Realtors forecast that sales will stay flat in 2016 and that the median price will rise more than 4 percent. A price increase that big would compound a problem for many would-be buyers: A rising proportion of homes are unaffordable as home values rose last year at more than twice the rate of pay.

Herald Tribune January 22, 2016

 

Posted in: Clearwater Beach condos, Clearwater Beach Real Estate, Clearwater Beach Real Estate Market News, Florida Real Estate News Tagged: Clearwater Beach Condos, Clearwater Beach Real Estate, Clearwater Real Estate Report

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